Agric. Econ. - Czech, 2026, 72(5):273-291 | DOI: 10.17221/142/2025-AGRICECON

Club convergence in cereal exports: Is climate change an important dynamic?Original Paper

Fatih Kaplan ORCID...1, Ahmet Koluman ORCID...1, Ali Rıza Aktaš ORCID...2
1 Deparment of International Trade and Logistics, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Tarsus University, Tarsus/Mersin, Türkiye
2 Department of Economics and Finance, Fethiye Faculty of Business Administration, Muğla Sıtkı Koįman University, Fethiye/Muğla, Türkiye

In view of the increasing negative impacts of climate change, international cereal trade has become a growing concern. This study examines the impact of climate change on cereal exports. The analysis consists of two stages. In the first stage, we investigate convergence in cereal exports across countries and identify potential clusters of similar export behaviour. To this end, club convergence analysis was conducted using export data from 95 countries for the period 2000–2022. The results reveal that countries are grouped into seven distinct clubs, indicating shared convergence paths. In the second stage, the impact of climate change on the formation of these clubs is analysed using the ordered logit model. This model assesses how climatic factors influence a country's likelihood of belonging to a particular convergence club. The findings show that precipitation and carbon emissions significantly increase the likelihood of being in the top two clubs with high cereal trade. This suggests that climate change is a critical dynamic in shaping convergence clubs.

Keywords: agricultural trade; food security; club convergence analysis; ordered logit model

Received: April 4, 2025; Revised: November 28, 2025; Accepted: December 2, 2025; Prepublished online: May 26, 2026; Published: May 29, 2026  Show citation

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Kaplan F, Koluman A, Aktaš AR. Club convergence in cereal exports: Is climate change an important dynamic? Agricultural Economics. 2026;72(5):273-291. doi: 10.17221/142/2025-AGRICECON.
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