Agricultural Economics - In Press
Impact of digital economy on agricultural land use in Sub-Saharan African countries
Zhaohui Qin, Gaddis Manana Elia, Mihasina Harinaivo Andrianarimanana, Tiavina Andriamahenina Nasolomampionona, Tarir Duok Gai Dhornor, Winnie Kudzai mazheti
Digital economy (DE) is now unavoidable in all human activities. However, how it is accelerating the development of agriculture, particularly innovation in agricultural land use (ALU) is not well established yet. This study used a moderated mediation model of panel data analysis, and investigates how the digital economy influences ALU in 07 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries between 2006 and 2022. The result shows that the DE has a positive and significant contribution to ALU. Moreover, analysis shows that higher government power leads to a rise in ALU, which underlines the relevance of productive agricultural policies. Furthermore, government effectiveness (GE) and water productivity (WP) strengthen this positive impact of ALU. Meanwhile, patents (PA) and water conservation activities undermine the right to fresh water. This work illustrates how modern land management and agricultural practices could evolve due to forces emanating from both within the technology-driven DE and its transformation and inside it on the driver level. This will generate harmonized policies on technology governance and resource management, allowing the DE to boost sustainable agricultural development in SSA. This will, in turn, provide coherent policies on technology governance and resource management that enable the DE to work for sustainable agricultural development within SSA.
Assessing the links between Climate Change Resiliency and Food Security in Northwestern Region BangladeshOriginal Paper
Abhi Sarker, Salman Ibn Yasin, Bikash Chandra Ghosh, Gershom Endelani Mwalupaso, Asma Akter, Emmanuel Kiprop, Liu Zhenzhen, Farjana Eyasmin, Geng Xianhui
Climate change is intensifying threats to food security across the developing countries, pushing vulnerable nations like Bangladesh toward a breaking point—where resilience is no longer an option but a survival imperative. Despite growing concerns, limited empirical research exists on how climate resilience influences food security across rural and urban farming households. This study examines climate resilience in northwestern Bangladesh and its impact on farming households' food security. Using multistage random sampling, 498 households across 16 villages in extreme climate zones were surveyed. A Climate Resilience Index (CRI) was developed to assess resilience, and a binary logistic model analyzed its effect on food security. Findings indicate that urban households exhibit greater resilience than rural ones, with 38.7% and 32.8% classified as food secure, respectively. Overall, only 35.74% of households in the study area were food secure. Key determinants of food security include household income, non-farm employment, crop diversity, education level of the household head, farm size, and individual CRI. Enhancing climate resilience through adaptive strategies can improve food security, while off-farm activities provide critical financial support. Policy interventions, such as government or NGO-led agricultural financing, could further strengthen food security.
Club Convergence in Cereal Exports: Is Climate Change an Important Dynamic?
FATİH KAPLAN, AHMET KOLUMAN, ALİ RIZA AKTAŞ
In view of the increasing negative impacts of climate change, the international trade of cereal crops raises concerns. Therefore, this study draws attention to the impact of climate change on cereal exports. The analysis of the study consists of two stages. In the first stage, the convergence levels of countries in terms of cereal exports are analyzed, and the countries that cooperate are identified. For this purpose, club convergence analysis was conducted using export data from 95 countries for the period 2000-2022. As a result of the analysis, it is observed that countries are divided into seven different clubs; that is, they move together. In the second stage, the impacts of climate change on the convergence clubs determined for cereal exports were analyzed. The Ordered Logit Model was utilized for this. This aims to observe the impact of climate change factors on the country's belonging to a particular club. The analysis results reveal that precipitation and carbon emissions increase the probability of belonging to one of the first two clubs. This indicates that climate change is an important and significant dynamic in the formation of convergence clubs
The Impact and Mechanisms of Animal Epidemics on Pork Prices: Evidence from a Multi-Period DIDOriginal Paper
Wen Zhizheng, Li Yi
This study uses the outbreak of African swine fever as a quasi-natural experiment to assess its impact on pork prices and the underlying mechanisms. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between January 2017 and December 2022, we employ a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) approachcombined with a moderated-effects model. Additionally, the DID-quantile regression (QR) model is utilised to investigate how the epidemic affected price volatility under varying initial pork price growth rates and agricultural institutional conditions. The results indicate that the epidemic led to a significant increase in pork prices, with an average rise of approximately 6%. In this context, pig stock levels moderated the price changes, with prices rising more rapidly in regions experiencing a decline in stock. The outbreak exacerbated regional price disparities, with larger price increases occurring in areas where initial pork prices were already rising rapidly and where the agricultural economy was more developed. Consequently, the government should implement targeted strategies to control price fluctuations based on regional differences. Furthermore, enhancing coordination across the pork industry and optimising public information platforms could help mitigate the impact of sudden animal disease outbreaks on the market.
Does Participation in Agricultural GVCs Impede Manufacturing Growth?Original Paper
Huseyin Alperen Özer, Halit Yanıkkaya, Taner Turan
This study investigates whether participation in agricultural GVCs leads to slower growth in manufacturing for the period of 1995 – 2022 in 44 countries. Our baseline estimations indicate that forward GVC integration in agriculture, crop cultivation and animal production support manufacturing growth. We further explore whether the income level of countries influences the impact of agricultural GVCs on manufacturing growth. Forward participation in agriculture, crop cultivation, and animal production in developing countries increases growth. However, in developed countries, deeper forward integration in animal production and backward integration in crop cultivation have a substantial negative impact on manufacturing growth. Furthermore, we test if resource reliance in manufacturing matters. Our findings reveal that forward participation in agriculture, crop cultivation, and animal production stimulates growth in resource-based manufacturing. For non-resource-based manufacturing, higher integration into backward participation in animal production drives growth. Overall, our results indicate that exporting agricultural intermediaries might not necessarily be a resource curse, instead, they can serve as a catalyst for industrialization in developing countries.
The opinions of first adopters in the introduction of Bt maize in Spain: a success storyOriginal Paper
Maria Mercè Clop-Gallart, Esther Estruch-Bosch, María Isabel Juárez, Montserrat Viladrich-Grau
Spain is one of the few EU countries that adopted genetically modified (GM) maize as a crop (in 1998) and has continued to harvest it ever since. This article aims to contribute to the writing of the history of the adoption of transgenic maize in the EU. Our aim is to identify Spanish farmers' motivations, opinions and beliefs on adopting this technology. The surveyed regions represented 74% of the national surface dedicated to transgenic maize. The questionnaire included questions related to characteristics of the farm, the farmers, and their opinions and beliefs. Our statistical model is a binary logistic regression that estimates the probability of adopting GM maize. The findings reveal that while farmers were aware of the potential problems associated with GM crops, their main concern was the economic threat posed by corn borer infestations. The expectation of increased economic benefits from transgenic maize served as an incentive for adoption. Attitudes toward GM maize did not differ significantly between adopters and non-adopters, with non-adopters showing that their concerns about the health risks of GM maize were not particularly strong, suggesting that the varying rates of adoption were not rooted in different beliefs.
The Impact and Dynamic Transmission Mechanism of African Swine Fever on Pork Prices in China: A Study Based on the Staggered DID Model and SVAR ModelOriginal Paper
Yi Li, Yu Wang, Liling Zhu, Beining Yan
African swine fever (ASF) has spread rapidly, significantly disrupting the pork market. This study treats the 2018 ASF outbreak in China as a quasi-natural experiment, using staggered difference-in-differences (DID) and spatial DID methods to assess its impact on pork prices. A structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model is applied to identify the sources of price fluctuations. The study also explores the mechanisms and heterogeneity in the effects of ASF on pork prices. The results show that (1) ASF significantly raises pork prices across various provinces. (2) Live pig prices are positively correlated with finishing pig feed prices, piglet prices, and pork prices in the long term but negatively correlated with the ASF index. (3) The key drivers of live pig price fluctuations include price inertia (59%), finishing pig feed prices (13%), piglet prices (11.5%), pork prices (10.8%), and the ASF index (5.6%). (4) For pork prices, the largest driver is live pig prices (53.4%), followed by finishing pig feed prices (14%), piglet prices (13.6%), price inertia (13.4%), and the ASF index (5.6%). (5) Mechanism analysis reveals that ASF impacts pork price fluctuations through farming costs and wholesale-retail profits. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that provinces with higher internet information levels, weaker agricultural development, and those in the eastern region are more vulnerable to the effects of ASF. On the basis of these findings, this paper offers targeted policy recommendations.