Agricultural Economics - In Press
Effects of different tillage practices on cropland carbon efficiency under wheat-maize rotation croppingOriginal Paper
Yu Wang, Boqian Wang, Xiuguang Bai
Under the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the unique dual attributes of cropland use—carbon emissions and carbon sinks—has attracted widespread scientific attention. With the survey data of wheat-maize growers in Yellow River Basin of China in 2020, our study evaluates farmers’ cropland carbon efficiency (CCE) by using the minimum distance to strong efficient frontier with undesirable outputs model (MinDS-U), and then examine the effect and the mechanism of different tillage practices in influencing CCE. The results show that the average CCE is 0.5926, and the largest average CCE is reduced tillage with straw returning (RTS), followed by no-tillage with straw returning (NTS), and the smallest is conventional tillage with straw returning (CTS). Both NTS and RTS significantly improve CCE, with NTS being more effective. Furthermore, mechanism tests indicate that NTS and RTS enhance CCE by increasing yield and net carbon sequestration. Additionally, NTS significantly reduces energy input, decreases carbon emissions, and thus bootsts CCE, while RTS leads to a slight increase in carbon emissions due to higher fertilizer and energy use, and a consequent decrease in CCE. In terms of heterogeneity, the benefits are more pronounced for small-to-medium-scale, less-educated, and elderly farmers.
Sustainable agricultural performance in the European Union in the context of ecological transition, economic fairness, and support policiesOriginal Paper
Valentin Marian Antohi, Jean Vasile Andrei, Costinela Fortea, Dumitru Nancu
This paper investigates the structural determinants of sustainable agricultural performance in the 27 European Union Member States over the period 2012–2023, with a focus on the interplay between economic efficiency, environmental sustainability, and social equity. Using a panel quantile regression approach, the study captures the heterogeneous effects of variables such as organic farming practices, public support for agricultural research and development, income inequality, and environmental emissions on multiple dimensions of agricultural performance. The results indicate that the influence of these factors varies significantly across the performance distribution, with stronger effects observed in lower-performing contexts. Higher agricultural income is consistently associated with enhanced value-added efficiency and reduced ecological intensity, suggesting a structural decoupling between economic growth and environmental pressure. The findings underscore the importance of differentiated and evidence-based policy interventions that promote innovation, resilience, and inclusive rural development. In alignment with key European strategies, such as the Common Agricultural Policy 2023–2027, the European Green Deal, and the Farm to Fork Strategy, this study provides a robust empirical framework to support the design of integrated agricultural policies aimed at achieving long-term sustainability and competitiveness in the European agricultural sector.
Corn price forecasts in the shadow of the Russian-Ukrainian conflictOriginal Paper
László Vancsura, Arnold Csonka
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused serious disruption to agricultural markets, affecting both food prices and food security. In our study, we examine how global economic problems such as Covid19 or war conditions affect the price of corn and its predictability. We have used deep neural network models (RNN, LSTM, GRU), experimenting with both simple and hybrid versions, as well as univariate and multivariate types. The results show that the LSTM model outperformed the others in the prediction of corn prices. It was also found that multivariate models tend to give more accurate results than their univariate counterparts, suggesting that the quality of forecasts can be significantly improved by including additional variables. In the robustness analysis of the models, it was shown that the Covid19 crisis in 2020 and Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022 led to a deterioration in model performance. The research can also contribute to the development of forecasting methods for the corn market and provide a basis for the development of long-term decision strategies by market players.
Empowering Farmers Through Agricultural Supply Chains: An ESR and IVQR Analysis of Income Effects in ChinaOriginal Paper
Zhao Ding, Qianyu Zhang
Integrating farmers into the modern agricultural industrial system is key to sustaining rural household income growth. Based on field survey data from rural areas in three western Chinese provinces, this study uses an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model to analyse the impact of farmers’ participation in agricultural supply chains on their income, and explores the heterogeneous effects of credit constraints and agricultural loans on the incomes of participating and non-participating farmers. The results show that supply chain participation significantly increases farmers’ total and operational income, while driving the modernisation of agricultural production methods. Specifically, supply chain participation enables farmers to use agricultural loans efficiently to drive income growth and alleviate income constraints caused by credit restrictions. Furthermore, the positive effect of supply chain participation on operational income is more prominent, especially for low- and middle-income farmers. In contrast, the income-increasing benefits of agricultural loans are more pronounced among middle- and high-income farmers, reflecting differences in loan utilisation capacity across income groups.
Measuring the Stutzer Ratio Performance of Agricultural PortfoliosOriginal Paper
Dejan ®ivkov, Boris Kuzman, Jonel Subić
This paper evaluates the risk-adjusted performance of multivariate agricultural portfolios using the Stutzer ratio, an advanced measure that accounts for non-normal return distributions and downside risk. Three four-asset portfolios – grains, softs, and meats – are analysed. The Stutzer ratio incorporates a risk-aversion parameter (θ) that penalizes tail risk, providing a more accurate assessment of skewed and fat-tailed returns. Results show that Stutzer-optimized portfolios outperform naïve equal-weight portfolios in risk-adjusted terms, as optimization effectively balances expected returns and downside exposure. Among the three portfolio categories, the softs portfolio exhibits the highest Stutzer ratio, with the meats portfolio following closely behind. Both portfolios have a relatively high tail-adjustment parameter (theta), indicating a reduced exposure to downside risk and a lower likelihood of extreme negative returns. Consequently, their risk-adjusted performance suggests greater return stability, making them particularly attractive to long-term investors.
Cognition, Adoption Intensity, and Environmental Efficiency of the Planting and Breeding Circular Model: Evidence from Northeast ChinaOriginal Paper
Zhe Zhao, You Xu, Yi Zhang
Based on 1051 points of survey data from 84 villages in Northeast China and the “model cognition–whether to adopt–adoption intensity–adoption benefits” conceptual framework, this paper empirically analyses the effect of the circular model of planting and breeding cognition on adoption decisions and adoption intensity. We also explore the impact of adopting the circular model of planting and breeding on environmental efficiency. The results show that perceived economic benefits are the fundamental driver for the occurrence of adoption behaviour and for the increase in adoption intensity among farmers, while perceived ease of use is an important factor influencing the occurrence of adoption behaviour and the increase in adoption intensity in the circular model of planting and breeding. Adopting the circular model of planting and breeding has a significant positive effect on environmental efficiency, resulting in an increase of 1.362%. Moreover, the higher the adoption intensity of the circular model of planting and breeding is, the greater the corresponding environmental efficiency. Additionally, internal circulation achieves higher environmental efficiency than does external circulation. Thus, the smallholder-based circular model of planting and breeding deserves more attention. On this basis, the paper argues that farmers’ adoption of the circular model of planting and breeding is based on its perceived ease of use and economic benefits. At the same time, promoting and applying the circular model of planting and breeding in rural areas align with the macro-level policy objective of green agricultural development.
Temperature Shocks Could Accelerate China's Expansion of Agricultural Operations Amid Ageing TrendsOriginal Paper
He Yang, HaoZhaoXing Liao, ShiWu Li, Wei Huang, Hao Yang, Haixia Zhang, GuangYan Chen
The integration of smallholder land and expanded agricultural operational scale are global agricultural development trends. Using 2012–2020 longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) combined with satellite-derived meteorological records, this study examines how temperature shocks influence land rental behaviour, supplemented by rigorous robustness checks. Results indicate that temperature shocks reduce per-hectare net income, deteriorate working conditions, and increase smallholders’ likelihood of transferring out land—particularly elderly farmers supported by their children. Notably, factor inputs (e.g., fertilisers and irrigation water) in large-scale operations are less susceptible to temperature fluctuations, mitigating related environmental risks. The study concludes that moderate agricultural scale expansion constitutes a more efficient and climate-resilient production model. For smallholder-dominated countries/regions, measures such as optimising land rental mechanisms and enhancing climate adaptation support can mitigate temperature shock impacts and drive agricultural sustainable transformation.
Qualitative meta-analysis of barriers and drivers to agroecological transitionReview
Laura Sanchez Mata, Melania Salazar-Ordóñez, Julio Berbel, Macario Rodríguez-Entrena
The agri-food sector can both be a contributor to and have potential for bolstering climate change. Agroecology is advocated as a feasible pathway for an agri-food system transformation, but to be successful agroecology necessitates an understanding of the factors influencing farmers’ pro-environmental behaviour. This study endeavours to identify and categorise these factors as either barriers or drivers through a qualitative meta-analysis, predicated on a structured systematic literature review within the European Union. The findings revealed that the farmers’ personal knowledge and capabilities (advanced age and limited income) stood as the principal barriers; while farm size, schooling level and training in agriculture were the main drivers. It has been discerned that policies ought to be custom-fitted to bolster farmers, for instance, providing higher financial stability.
Has the agricultural productivity increased after European Union enlargements in Central European countries? Evidences from four countries’ cereal production
©tefan Bojnec, Lukáą Čechura, Jan Falkowski, Imre Ferto
It was widely expected that following European Union enlargement in 2004, farmers in New Member States would improve their performance by increasing the efficiency of their production processes. In this study, using the Farm Accountancy Data Network data, we look at changes in total factor productivity, a measure which captures how efficiently and intensely inputs are utilised in production, that took place in farms producing cereals in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia between 2004 and 2017. We find that in all four countries total factor productivity increased in the first years after the accession, but later declined. Overall, in the three former countries, total factor productivity in 2017 was higher than observed in 2004, whereas in Slovenia it was lower. This pattern largely corresponds to the dynamics observed with technological change: an initial technological progress was followed by a technological regress. Our results also suggest that over time farmers faced increasing problems with finding an optimal size of their operation. Finally, we observe that the technologies adopted on the farms were not used in an efficient way.