Agric. Econ. - Czech, 2026, 72(5):314-339 | DOI: 10.17221/350/2024-AGRICECON

The effect and dynamic transmission mechanism of African swine fever on pork prices in China: A study based on the staggered DID model and SVAR modelOriginal Paper

Yi Li, Yu Wang, Liling Zhu, Beining Yan
School of Economics and Management, Hunan Institute of Science and Technology, Yueyang, P.R. China

African swine fever (ASF) has spread rapidly, substantially disrupting the pork market. In this study, we treat the 2018 ASF outbreak in China as a quasi-natural experiment, using staggered difference-in-differences (DID) and spatial DID methods to assess its effect on pork prices. We use a structural vector autoregression model to identify the sources of price fluctuations. In the study, we also explore the mechanisms and heterogeneity in the effects of ASF on pork prices. The results show that (i) ASF significantly raises pork prices across various provinces; (ii) live pig prices are positively correlated with finishing pig feed prices, piglet prices and pork prices in the long term but negatively correlated with the ASF index; (iii) the key drivers of live pig price fluctuations include price inertia (59%), finishing pig feed prices (13%), piglet prices (11.5%), pork prices (10.8%) and the ASF index (5.6%); (iv) for pork prices, the largest driver is live pig prices (53.4%), followed by finishing pig feed prices (14%), piglet prices (13.6%), price inertia (13.4%) and the ASF index (5.6%); (v) mechanism analysis reveals that ASF affects pork price fluctuations through farming costs and wholesale-retail profits. The heterogeneity analysis results reveal that provinces with higher internet information levels, weaker agricultural development and those in the eastern region are more vulnerable to the effects of ASF. On the basis of these findings, we offer targeted policy recommendations.

Keywords: African swine fever; causal mediation effects; pork prices; staggered difference-in-differences; SVAR

Received: September 20, 2024; Revised: November 26, 2025; Accepted: December 17, 2025; Published: May 29, 2026  Show citation

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Li Y, Wang Y, Zhu L, Yan B. The effect and dynamic transmission mechanism of African swine fever on pork prices in China: A study based on the staggered DID model and SVAR model. Agricultural Economics. 2026;72(5):314-339. doi: 10.17221/350/2024-AGRICECON.
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