Agric. Econ. - Czech, 2024, 70(11):556-564 | DOI: 10.17221/253/2024-AGRICECON

Did the COVID-19 pandemic disturb intra-EU trade in agrifood products? Evidence from a counterfactual forecasting approachOriginal Paper

Mariusz Hamulczuk ORCID...1, Karolina Pawlak ORCID...2, Daniel Sumner ORCID...3, Grzegorz Szafrański ORCID...4
1 Department of International Economics and Agribusiness, Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
2 Department of Economics and Economic Policy in Agribusiness, Faculty of Economics, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland
3 Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California at Davis, Davis, United States of America
4 Economics and Sociology Department, Institute of Econometrics, University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland

In this study, we attempt to infer the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the intra–European Union (EU) agrifood trade from out-of-sample forecasts. We compare the actual level of trade during the COVID-19 period with counterfactual values derived from univariate forecasting models [regARIMA (Linear regression with autoregressive integrated moving average errors) and Holt-Winters methods]. We analyse agrifood imports and exports of specific EU countries and the EU-27 aggregate on the basis of monthly data for the period from January 2010 to February 2022. The findings reveal a significant decrease in trade activity in the first year of the pandemic that was negatively correlated to COVID-19 restrictions applied by EU countries. Surprisingly, COVID-19 restrictions do not significantly explain the diversified agrifood trade response among EU countries during the pandemic.

Keywords: agricultural products; COVID restrictions; EU countries; food products; foreign trade

Received: July 16, 2024; Revised: October 2, 2024; Accepted: October 29, 2024; Published: November 29, 2024  Show citation

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Hamulczuk M, Pawlak K, Sumner D, Szafrański G. Did the COVID-19 pandemic disturb intra-EU trade in agrifood products? Evidence from a counterfactual forecasting approach. Agric. Econ. - Czech. 2024;70(11):556-564. doi: 10.17221/253/2024-AGRICECON.
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