Agric. Econ. - Czech, 2024, 70(11):527-540 | DOI: 10.17221/173/2024-AGRICECON

Unravelling risk factors in Turkish wheat in a changing global landscapeOriginal Paper

Huseyin Tayyar Guldal1, Ozdal Koksal ORCID...1, Osman Orkan Ozer ORCID...2, Onur Terzi ORCID...3, Erdogan Gunes ORCID...1, Aysegul Selisik ORCID...4
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Ankara University, Ankara, Türkiye
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Adnan Menderes University, Aydin, Türkiye
3 The Economy Bank of Türkiye, Istanbul, Türkiye
4 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Ankara, Türkiye

This study comprehensively examines multifaceted risk factors influencing wheat production among Turkish farmers, aiming to deepen understanding of how these factors shape farmers’ perceptions and decision-making processes. Utilising Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), we analysed the interplay of climate-related issues (F1), market dynamics (F2), and external events (F3), like COVID-19 and wars, alongside socio-demographic factors such as education, income, and land ownership. Findings revealed that higher education and increased agricultural income reduced price-related risks while expanding wheat cultivation areas heightened risk perceptions. Farmers in irrigated regions prioritised cyclical risks, whereas those in dry areas perceived climatic risks as more severe. Capital-intensive practices and storage facilities mitigate climate change and market variability risks, with committed wheat producers showing lower climate change risk perceptions. External factors like the Russian-Ukrainian war and the COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately impact irrigated area farmers. This study contributes to the existing literature by using empirical evidence from Turkish wheat farming to explore diverse risk perceptions, employing SEM to unravel complex risk factors and decision-making processes, thereby offering new insights for future agricultural risk management research.

Keywords: climate change; COVID-19; food security; Russian-Ukrainian war; Structural Equation Modeling

Received: May 16, 2024; Revised: October 10, 2024; Accepted: October 17, 2024; Published: November 29, 2024  Show citation

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Tayyar Guldal H, Koksal O, Orkan Ozer O, Terzi O, Gunes E, Selisik A. Unravelling risk factors in Turkish wheat in a changing global landscape. Agric. Econ. - Czech. 2024;70(11):527-540. doi: 10.17221/173/2024-AGRICECON.
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