Agric. Econ. - Czech, 2023, 69(4):129-139 | DOI: 10.17221/374/2022-AGRICECON

The impact of geopolitical risk on agricultural commodity pricesOriginal Paper

Kristína Hudecová1, Miroslava Rajčániová1,2
1 Institute of Economic Policy and Finance, Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak University of Agriculture in Nitra, Nitra, Slovakia
2 Department of Economic Theories, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic

The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine had a detrimental effect on the global agricultural and food market and the price movements of essential commodities. In this study, we aim to investigate the effects of geopolitical risk on the prices of selected agricultural and food commodities using the linear and nonlinear ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) model. Our results show evidence of the asymmetric impact of geopolitical risk on the prices of rapeseed, sugar, sunflower oil, and wheat. The findings also show no long-term link between geopolitical risk and corn, cotton, lumber, milk, oats, rough rice, and soybean prices.

Keywords: economic policy uncertainty; financial volatility; Russia-Ukraine war; time series analysis

Received: December 8, 2022; Accepted: March 27, 2023; Prepublished online: April 20, 2023; Published: April 28, 2023  Show citation

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Hudecová K, Rajčániová M. The impact of geopolitical risk on agricultural commodity prices. Agric. Econ. - Czech. 2023;69(4):129-139. doi: 10.17221/374/2022-AGRICECON.
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