Agric. Econ. - Czech, 2013, 59(3):125-133 | DOI: 10.17221/79/2012-AGRICECON

Macedonian livestock, dairy and grain sectors and the EU accession impactOriginal Paper

Ana KOTEVSKA1, Dragi DIMITRIVESKI1, Emil ERJAVEC2
1 Facultyof Agricultural Sciences and Food, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, Skopje, Macedonia
2 Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Domžale, Slovenia

The Republic of Macedonia is in the process of integrating into the European Union (EU) and adjusting its policies through reforms in policy, regulations and institutions. This paper attempts to provide an answer to the question: what would be the impact on the Macedonian livestock, dairy and grain sectors of Macedonia integrating into the EU. In order to forecast the impact of the EU accession, the research uses the partial equilibrium model as a comprehensive tool for modelling the complex nature of the agricultural markets. The model simulation foresees the changes of the modelled sub-sectors in production, net-trade and income. The baseline scenario predicts a positive development for almost all selected commodities, with the exception of the beef sector, which is highly uncompetitive prior to the accession. Three EU accession scenarios foresee positive developments in the beef, lamb and cow's milk markets, while a negative development is expected in the pig meat and grains markets.

Keywords: agricultural policy, European Union integration, partial equilibrium model

Published: March 31, 2013  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
KOTEVSKA A, DIMITRIVESKI D, ERJAVEC E. Macedonian livestock, dairy and grain sectors and the EU accession impact. Agric. Econ. - Czech. 2013;59(3):125-133. doi: 10.17221/79/2012-AGRICECON.
Download citation

References

  1. Bienfield J., Donnellan, T., McQuinn K. (2001): The econometric modeling of Irish agriculture. In: Heckelei T., Witzke H.P., Henrichsmeyer W. (eds.): Agricultural Sector Modelling and Policy Information Systems. Proceedings of the 65th European Seminar of the European Association of Agricultural Economists, Bonn, Germany, 29-31 March 2000. Vauk, Kiel, pp. 229-236.
  2. Chantreuil, F., Hanrahan K.F., Leeuwen M. van (eds.) (2012): The Future of EU Agricultural Markets by AGMEMOD. Springer, Dordrecht. Go to original source...
  3. Erjavec E., Dimitrievski D. (2008): EU Common Agricultural Policy and Accession Tasks for Western Balkan's Countries. Western Balkan Agriculture and European Integration. Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food, Skopje.
  4. Erjavec E., Donnellan T. (2005): Development of the AGMEMOD country level agricultural policy analysis tool in the New Member States of EU. In: Arfini F. (ed.): Modelling Agricultural Policies: State of the Art and New Challenges. Proceedings of the 89th European Seminar of European Association of Agricultural Economists, Parma, Italy, 2-5 February, 2005. Monte Universita Parma, Parma, pp. 307-328.
  5. Erjavec E., Donnellan T., Kavčič S. (2006): Outlook for CEEC agricultural markets after EU accession. Eastern European Economics, 44: 83-103. Go to original source...
  6. Erjavec E., Kavcic S. (2005): The Accession of Slovenia to the European Union - Scenarion Analysis for Key Agricultural Markets with the Ag-Memod Modelling Approach. University of Ljubljana, Domžale.
  7. Erjavec E., Rednak M., Bajramovic S. (2009): Common agricultural policy of European Union and expected challenges for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Works of the Faculty of Agriculture and Food Sciences University of Sarajevo, 55: 7-26. (in Macedonian)
  8. European Commission (2009): Agricultural Commodity Markets Outlook 2009-2018. A comparative analysis of projections published by OECD & FAO, FAPRI, USDA, European Commission. DG Agriculture and Rural Development, Brussels.
  9. Greene W.H. (2008): Econometric Analysis. 6th ed. Pearson Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
  10. Hanrahan K., Levert F., Chantreuil F. (2007): Mnemonic Protocol. Agmemod Partnership - Notes & Guidelines 3. [online] Available at www.agmemod.org (accessed 15 June 2008).
  11. Howitt R.E. (2005): Agricultural and Environmental Policy Models: Calibration, Estimation and Optimization. Available at http://agecon.ucdavis.edu/people/faculty/richard-howitt/docs/c1.pdf (accessed 12 December 2009).
  12. Hristovska A. (2005): Partial equilibrium model of the pig meat market in the Republic of Macedonia. [Master Thesis.] Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food, Skopje. (in Macedonian)
  13. Jensen J.D., Bjerre M., Andersen M., Nielsen J. (2002): How does your country fare? A country modelling example. In: Exploring diversity in the European Agri-Food System. Proceedings of the 10th EAAE Congress. Zaragosa, Spain, 28-31 August 2002, [CD-Rom] pp. 229-236.
  14. Kotevska A. (2010): Partial equilibrium model for ex-ante analysis of the market of certain agricultural commodities in the Republic of Macedonia. [Doctoral Thesis.] Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food, Skopje. (in Macedonian)
  15. MAFWE (2009): National program for agricultural policy and rural development in the period 2010-2014. Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia. (in Macedonian)
  16. OECD (2007): Glossary of statistical terms. [online] Available at http://stats.oecd.org/glossary (accessed 3 June 2011).
  17. Pelling E. (2007): Macedonia at the Doorstep of the European Union: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis of the Implications for the Feed-Livestock Complex. Department of Economics, Uppsala, SLU.
  18. Regoršek D. (2010): A partial equilibrium model of agricultural markets for estimating the economic effects of integration and reform processes. [Doctoral Dissertation.] Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana.
  19. Salamon P., Chantreuil F., Donnellan T., Erjavec E., Esposti R., Hanrahan K., Leeuwen M.V., Bouma F., Dol W., Salputra G. (2008): How to deal with the challenges of linking or large number of individual models: the case of the AGMEMOD partnership. Agrarwirtschaft, 57: 373-378.
  20. United Nations (2004): World Population to 2300. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations, New York.
  21. Salputra G., Chantreuil F., Hanrahan K., Donnellan T., Leeuwen M.V., Erjavec E. (2011): Policy harmonized approach for the EU agricultural sector modelling. Agricultural and Food Science, 20: 119-130. Go to original source...
  22. Volk T., Rednak M., Erjavec E. (2012): Western Balkans agriculture and European integration: unused potential and policy failures? Post-communist Economies, 24: 111-123. Go to original source...

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY NC 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.